Throw Out the 2025 Playbook

Every year, markets fall in love with a set of stories.

By now, you’re familiar with the 2025 stories:

AI datacenters everywhere, gold and metals surging, space as the next frontier, international markets “finally waking up,” and crypto inching closer to institutional legitimacy.

As we enter 2026, the opportunity is no longer in piggybacking on the obvious. It’s in understanding the second-order effects and what comes next.

For example, AI spending didn’t just create winners, it created bottlenecks in power grids and supply chains. It’s also creating margin pressure and debt burdens in new places.

With the models becoming cheaper and more capable, the real question now is where AI is actually producing ROI.

Mining and metals weren’t just about inflation hedges. The narrative expanded to geopolitical shifts and supply chain fragility.

The shake up in Venezuela hints that there’s more shifts to come in 2026.

International markets also woke up as global investors repriced risk in the wake of major US policy shifts.

With looming tariff decisions and midterm elections, capital flows could get redirected even further.

In crypto, ETFs and treasuries solved access but not conviction.

What other catalysts could turn the tide of sentiment?

Our core idea for 2026 is this:

The first-order trade is crowded. The second-order consequence is mispriced.

So here’s our take on the fresh opportunities and risks that could be most relevant in the year ahead:

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