The $100 Oil Playbook (Our Base Case, Stagflation, and the Black Swan)

It is Sunday night, March 8th.

Oil just gapped above $100 in pre-market.

Crude oil is up about 65% since the Iran escalation. We also see stocks rolling over on Hormuz disruption fears.

Bitcoin’s at $66K testing weekly support:

We have seen this movie before.

And the pattern is always the same…

Maximum fear, maximum noise, maximum temptation to do something impulsive.

The investors who get hurt are the ones who react to the headline instead of reading the structure.

So instead of panicking or pretending we know exactly how this plays out, we are going to do what we always do:

1. Map the possibilities

2. Weigh the probabilities

3. And build a framework for each one

What Is Actually Happening

Iran conflict escalation pushed crude oil futures through $100 on the Sunday night open.

The Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 20% of global oil supply, is the choke point everyone is watching. The gap-up in oil was violent.

Stocks gapped down and are testing a break below multi-month support AND the daily 200 moving average.

Everything is moving on a single variable right now:

Does this conflict escalate, or does it resolve?

In our view, there are three possible paths from here. We have assigned probabilities to each based on what we are seeing in the data, the futures curve, and the geopolitical dynamics.

Let’s jump into it…

Three Scenarios, One Framework

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